Monday, 17 January 2011

Labour Soars Ahead in Poll

Labour is the only party that can take any encouragement from the latest TNS poll on voting intentions in Scotland in the Herald.

Top line figures for the constituency vote are;

Labour 49% (up 7% since August)

SNP 33% (up 1%)

Tory 9% (down 3%)

Lib Dem 7% (down 5%)

The Lib Dems and the Tories must obviously be worried about the collapse in their support to almost derisory levels.  Seven and nine percent respectively are almost unthinkable levels of support for parties that have ambitions to be "national" parties in a Scottish context.

Nor can the SNP take any comfort from these results. Their support is roughly the same as it was in 2007. The article doesn't say so explicitly, but I suspect that, on these figures, the SNP looks set to lose seats in the Scottish Parliament, while Labour would gain substantially.

That would make Labour comfortably the largest party, and a vote of of around 40-50% would give Labour a strong mandate to govern as a minority or make them the overwhelmingly dominant party in any coalition.


  1. It was bound to happen. The SNP are the government in Scotland and teh Toryiberals are the government in the imperial capital.

    Labour is the only opposition party and was bound to come out well.

    So the message from the poll appears to be prepare yourself for Elmer Fudd as the comic first minister.

    God help us all.

  2. It wasn't bound to happen. If the SNP had delivered even a small proportion of the policies they stood on, they could claim some case for re-election.

    But they didn't, so they can't.