Sunday, 13 March 2011

Labour ahead in Scottish polls.

The Press Association is reporting a poll in the Scottish Mail on Sunday by a group called Scottish Progressive Opinion (of whom I have to confess, I have never heard).

Of those certain to vote, 43% backed Labour in the constituency vote, with  37% for the SNP, 11% Tory and 5% LibDem, Scottish Socialist 2% and Greens 1%.

In the list vote, Labour polled 44%, with the SNP on 37%, Conservatives 11%, Liberal Democrats 4%,.

The results mean Labour would end up with 63 seats - up by 17. The SNP would have 49 seats, the Lib Dems would  be reduced from the current 16 down to five and the Tories would lose five seats - leaving them with 12 MSPs.

These figure compare with  a YouGov poll on 27th Feb which had;

Constituency: CON 15%, LAB 41%, LDEM 8%, SNP 32%

Regional: CON 15%, LAB 40%, LDEM 7%, SNP 26%, GRN 6%

Giving Labour would get 59 seats.

And an Ipsos/Mori poll of a month ago, which had the figures at 36% SNP, 35% Labour, giving the SNP a narrow lead at Holyrood.

The SNP has had it's conference this weekend. Maybe we will see some surge of support for them and their promises from this.

In any case, the polls are close enough to ensure that neither party will become complacent. As I said before and I say again: it's all about getting out the vote.

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