Could this be significant?

Labour has held a pretty steady lead for the last few months on the YouGov daily poll. The lead has fluctuated between 4% and 6%, recently moving to 6%-8%.

But last week there were two days when the Labour lead stood at 11%. Todays poll puts the figures at 45% Labour, 35% Conservative, Lib Dem 9%, giving Labour a 10% lead.It's the first time there has been a sustained consistent 10%+ gap between the two big parties since last year's election.

The Government's approval rating is at -29%.

Allied with the recent Europe-wide poll showing that the UK was the country with least support for big economic cuts, this is bad news for the coalition. When oppositions start to do this wel in polls, governments start changing tack. Look for policy u-turns and cracks in the coalition.

Belated Happy New Year....

.....and apologies if anyone is still reading... Christmas and New Year have been stressfull, what with Swine 'Flu in the family and other medical complications. These are happily past now, and the new year has properly begun.....

Where to start? So much has been going on, but the big development seems to me to be that the gloss is coming off the coalition. The opinion polls are turning against them and their competence is being questioned at every turn, from the handling of the 'flu problems to bankers bonuses to in-fighting between the coalition partners. Much of the disillussion is caused by the speed and secrecy with which very big changes are being rushed through: changes to schools and education and local government which are designed not to improve efficiency and effectiveness, but to alter forever the relationship between the voters and these institutions.

Today we have the Health Reforms in England, the stated aim of which is to devolve power to GPs, but which has the un-stated aim of carrying privatisation ever deeper into the NHS.

Left Foot Forward has an interesting analysis of the language used to cover  up the real objectives of the changes.

And just in case you were in any doubt about the need to resist such changes and the effects of  a privatised medical system, there's this report from an The Commonwealth Foundation on the under-performance of the US medical system compared to seven other wealthy countries. The UK comes second on the table of achievements, which is quite good for what the Tories call "our failing NHS". The USA, with its mainly private medical provision comes seventh out of seven...

What to call them....

The coalition has been a puzzle to Labour and its other opponents in many ways, not least what to call them.

The coalition? Too bland.

The LibCons? The Condem coalition? Too contrived..

None seem to stick and none provide the sense that we have pinned them down to their essence.

I suggest the ToryDems or Torydems. It tells what they are: predominently Tory supported by the right wing of the Liberal Democrats. It is that Tory, Orange Book, wing of the Lib Dems that is propping up Dave'n'George, not the old "Liberal" wing, the people who thought that they were in a left-of-centre party....

Torydem. Think it'll stick....?

The apprentices take over the workshop....

In France, young men of greatest promise who are at the best schools or studying the favoured subjects at the Sorbonne are spotted by their teachers and lecturers. Such individuals are singled out young, steered through the academic process and their careers monitored and nurtured. The most promising are regarded as "l'homme serieux".  These men of destiny will be from the right backgrounds, be exceptionally bright and have the right character and contacts. They will be nurtured through their academic studies and early careers because they are the future of the country, the coming establishment, the young men (and women) who will in twenty or more years will be running the country and  industry and academie.

Any hope that there might have been that the privileged group of young Conservatives who have taken over our country are the UK equivalent of the French chosen elite is fading fast. They do indeed come from the right background and they went to the right schools and clubs, they have the right connections and they formed the right relationships. They are the very heart of the old establishmnet, but on the evidence so far, they are far from prepared for power: they are not "serieux". Not by a long way.

The Observer had a piece yesterday, The Secret Diary of a Civil Servant. Purporting to be written anonymously by a senior civil servant, it was full of a misery and despair at the state of the civil service and, just a few weeks into the Parliamentary term, the quality of political leadership. It documented the growing gloom among civil servants at the actions of the coalition government.

The article pulls no punches. On a speech by David Cameron which was meant to boost morale, the author believes that; 

"Cameron meant well, but it was clear that he hadn't the faintest idea what a civil servant does, or the daily dilemmas we face."

Read that again: he is describing a Prime Minister who doesn't know how government works, a person who is totally unprepared for the job he sought and was given by the electorate.

The evidence is damning;

I have noted since the election that Conservative ministers seem very relaxed. I, like many others, interpreted this as confidence and competence. After last week, it started to look like naivety and arrogance. The gaffes were piling up and forming an edifice of stupidity. Ministers called to the Commons to apologise; Hillsborough survivors insulted; Jamie Oliver criticised; the Speaker called a stupid sanctimonious dwarf; school building programmes announced and then scrapped. It was a litany of carelessness and sloppiness, a series of avoidable own goals that illustrated a lack of preparation, a lack of seriousness and the failure to appreciate what it is to govern a country.

 And while the politicians are blundering about like a herd of bulls in a veritable mall of china shops, the civil service is in disarray;

At the very highest levels, some of the most experienced officials are packing their bags. Giddy with the glimpse of freedom, they are happily waving through these gigantic plans. Beneath them are scores of officials who would like to muster the fight to critique and improve them. Instead they are paralysed by the imperative to let the new regime make its own mistakes....

The most evident example of the incompetence that infects the coalition is the announcement, by Michael Gove, of the schools building programme in England. To call the announcement a fiasco is to unederplay the chaos and confusion leashed by the minister. Ed Balls has latched on the mess caused by Gove and intends to ask him some pointed questions in the House today.

Also today, Andrew Lansley will announce (although it's all leaked in advance anyway) his plans for the NHS in England. Trailed as the most radical change in health provision since the NHS was founded, the changes have been formulated with remarkable speed and absolutely no consultation. They are a real gamble with the Health Service as we know it. 

But if morale in the civil service is so low, and the politicians' grasp of the levers of power is so misdirected, it is unlikely that these huge changes to Health and Education (and much much more to come) can be introduced quickly or smoothly.  The confusion and chaos of Gove's cuts certainly doesn't encourage confidence in the future of the other radical changes that the coalition's plans, or for the good governence which is vital in the current economic situation.

Am I just being a grumpy old man?

Watching and reading the media, you could get the impression that a new dawn has broken in ConDem Britain. According to the journalists, all is smiles and nods and winks and pictures of betrothed Clegg and Cameron swooning in each others arms, happy politicians slapping each other on the back and "historic" cabinet meetings with ministers grinning towards the cameras.

But is it really so? Has a new dawn really broken? Is it all milk and honey and sweetness and light across the land?

Not on the streets, IMO. I may be wilfully obtuse, but I don't see this bonhomie stretching to the actual population. It seems to me that the people I meet, while not exactly sullen, are not chirpy either. Wary is the mood, cautious, waiting. We'll give this lot  a chance to show that they are better than the last lot, but I wouldn't hold my breath, is the feeling of the people.

The majority did not want the Conservatives. In fact many people voted Lib Dem precisely in order to keep the Tories out, and now they have a Tory government, they're not quite sure how it happened, and they are not happy.  The population is not rebellious yet, but you get the feeling that it will not take much to get them to see the fault lines in the ConDem Coalition.

And then the waiting might just turn to wailing....

And I'm not really that grumpy, I like  a laugh as much as the next man... listen here

The Lib Dems Dirty Secret (part the first)

As I write this, there are two public schoolboys carving up politcal power in Westminster. Eton and Westminster (and St Pauls, but we won't mention the oik), and Oxbridge combine, as so often in the past, to tell us what is best for them, and therefore what is best for us. So much for the "new politcs".....

And so far so ancien regime. But, as Nick Clegg struts his hour upon the stage, his party harbours a dirty secret that the press, for some reason, has ignored and kept the lid on. That secret is that the Liberal Democrats, the kingmakers and believers in "fair" politics, are not really a national party at all: in some areas they hardly exist as an "on the ground" organisation.

In evidence I give my own experience: the Lib Dem candidate in our constituency did not attend the count. Strange enough in itself, you might say, for a party that boasted of having 100 seats and maybe even being the biggest party in Parliament, for the candidate not to turn up at the count. But it's worse than that, much worse: the Lib Dem candidate did not appear in the constituency at all during the campaign. Not once. And no leaflets or statements were sent out by the Lib Dems, to my knowledge. I received none, and I know of no-one who did.

Even more shockingly, this is not the first time this has happened at Westminster and Scottish elections. The Liberal Democrats have put up a "ghost" candidate on at least two recent occassions in this seat. Far from being "fair", I believe that this shows a distressing contempt for the voters and the political process.

So as Nick Clegg dictates the terms of the next UK government, flexing his political muscles and flashing his six-pack, he conceals the the weakness of his organisation to deliver any agreement that he might make with the Tories. Nick's dirty little secret is that his party is not all it seems.